Efeito da incerteza da política econômica internacional sobre os mercados financeiros da América Latina
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383Palavras-chave:
EPU, América latina, mercados financeiros, WaveletsResumo
O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a relação entre os mercados financeiros da América Latina e o índice de incerteza da política econômica dos Estados Unidos e da China, por meio da coerência Wavelet. Os resultados confirmam a existência de uma relação de comovimento entre os retornos dos mercados latinos e este índice; além disso, foi identificada uma correlação negativa e liderada por ele nos retornos de mercado, entre os quais se destaca o índice de Incerteza Político Económica (EPU) dos Estados Unidos sobre México e Colômbia no curto e médio prazo, e o EPU da China sobre Brasil e Peru no médio prazo. Isso evidencia um efeito heterogêneo da relação entre os mercados financeiros e o EPU. Os achados fornecem informações relevantes para a tomada de decisões sobre a incerteza causada pelas grandes economias internacionais.
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