Indicadores financeiros como poderoso instrumento para prever insolvência. Um estudo usando o algoritmo boosting em empresas colombianas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2020.155.3588Palavras-chave:
previsão de insolvencia, falencia, análise financeira, indicadores financeiros, algoritmo boostingResumo
Esta pesquisa é motivada pela importância de ter uma boa previsão de insolvência com antecedência. O objetivo deste artigo é desenvolver um modelo preditivo para as empresas colombianas com um, dois e três anos de antecedência, utilizando indicadores financeiros, preservando a estrutura original da amostra e levando em consideração o regulamento de insolvência. Este artigo contribui com a literatura, pois, diferentemente dos estudos tradicionais, são levados em consideração aspectos como legislação, explicando os diferentes tipos de indicadores financeiros, e o algoritmo boosting é utilizado sem influenciar a amostra inicial. Para o desenvolvimento deste estudo, considerou-se uma amostra de 11.812 empresas colombianas durante o período 2012-2016. Os resultados mostram uma precisão superior a 70% na previsão da insolvência com um, dois e três anos de antecedência.
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