DIVIDENDOS POTENCIALES Y FLUJOS DE CAJA REALES EN VALORACIÓN. UN ANÁLISIS CRÍTICO (Artículo publicado en inglés)

Ignacio Vélez Pareja; Carlo Alberto Magni

doi:10.1016/S0123-5923(09)70092-0

Autores

Ignacio Vélez Pareja Master of Science en Industrial Engineering, University of Missouri, Estados Unidos. Profesor Asociado, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, Colombia. Grupo de investigación Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo, IDE, Colombia.
Carlo Alberto Magni PhD in Mathematics applied to economic problems, University of Trieste, Italia. Associate Professor of Mathematical Methods for Economics, Actuarial and Financial Sciences , University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Faculty of Economics, Italia.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0123-5923(09)70092-0

Palavras-chave:

Fluxo de caixa para valoração, potenciais dividendos, valoração de patrimônio

Resumo

Profissionais e a maioria dos académicos trabalhando no campo da valoração incluem mudanças em ativos disponíveis (potenciais dividendos) nos fluxos de caixa. Esta prática comum e incorreta é inconsistente com a teoria financeira básica. Nós apresentamos argumentos econômicos, teóricos e empíricos para apoiar essa tese. Enquanto que os argumentos econômicos afirmam que apenas os fluxos de caixa deveriam ser considerados para objetivos de valoração, os argumentos teóricos mostram como a consideração de potenciais dividendos leva a contradições/discrepâncias e perdas em arbitragem. Argumentos empíricos em estudos recentes sugerem que os investidores tendem a descontar potenciais dividendos a elevadas taxas de desconto, o que significa que as mudanças em ativos disponíveis não são acionadores de valor. Por isso, apenas pagamentos reais deveriam ser considerados ao valorar fluxos de caixa.

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