Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.estger.2014.06.003Palavras-chave:
Opciones reales, Mercados de electricidad, Valoración, Toma de decisiones, Energía eólicaResumo
Las decisiones estratégicas en los mercados de electricidad están sujetas a un alto riesgo e incertidumbre; en consecuencia, las opciones reales aparecen como una alternativa para la toma de decisiones en dichos mercados. En el presente artículo se realiza una revisión de literatura analizando y clasificando aplicaciones de opciones reales sobre decisiones de inversión, operación, y de políticas y programas energéticos. Además se presenta un ejemplo sintético de aplicación teórico utilizando un modelo binomial para incor- porar energía eólica en vez de térmica de acuerdo con la volatilidad de los precios del carbón. Se concluye que las opciones reales permiten tomar mejores decisiones que los métodos tradicionales, pues capturan a través de sus múltiples modelos las diferentes incertidumbres propias de estos mercados.
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