Metodología para el análisis estratégico cuantitativo en proyectos a partir del análisis de riesgos

Delio Salgado; Gabriel Awad

doi:10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5198

Authors

Delio Salgado Docente interno, Facultad de Ingeniería Industrial, Escuela de Ingenierías y Arquitectura, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Montería, Colombia.
Gabriel Awad Profesor asociado, Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación y de la Decisión, Facultad de Minas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia – Sede Medellín, Medellín, Colombia. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8694-7315

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5198

Keywords:

SWOT, project risk analysis, quantitative SWOT, SWOT methodology

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology for the construction of a matrix for the analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in the formulation and evaluation of projects, using quantitative risk studies. It starts with a literature review to obtain a description of the analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and its uses, as well as tools in project risk studies. Then, a methodological framework for the construction of the quantitative matrix of analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and the necessary sections to carry out the analysis is shown. This analysis is validated with an application case. It is concluded that, through the quantitative analysis of risks in the projects, subjectivity in the construction of the strategic matrix of analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats can be reduced.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abdel-Basset, M., Mohamed, M. y Smarandache, F. (2018). An extension of neutrosophic ahp-swot analysis for strategic planning and decision-making. Symmetry, 10(4), 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym10040116

Agyekum, E. B. (2020). Energy poverty in energy rich Ghana: A SWOT analytical approach for the development of Ghana’s renewable energy. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 40, 100760. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2020.100760

Aich, A. y Ghosh, S. K. (2016). Application of SWOT analysis for the selection of technology for processing and disposal of MSW. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 35, 209-228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2016.07.083

Alvarez, S., Carballo-Penela, A., Mateo-Mantecón, I. y Rubio, A. (2016). Strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis of carbon footprint indicator and derived recommendations. Journal of Cleaner Production, 121, 238-247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.02.028

Arsić, S., Nikolić, D. y Živković, Z. (2017). Hybrid SWOT - ANP - FANP model for prioritization strategies of sustainable development of ecotourism in National Park Djerdap, Serbia. Forest Policy and Economics, 80, 11-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.02.003

Ávila, P., Mendoza, A., Zambrano, M. y Andrade, R. (2021). El flujo de caja en la evaluación de proyectos inversión. Suplemento CICA Multidisciplinario, 5(11), 150-168.

Baycheva-Merger, T. y Wolfslehner, B. (2016). Evaluating the imple-mentation of the Pan-European criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management - A SWOT analysis. Ecological Indicators, 60, 1192-1199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.09.009

Benzaghta, M., Elwalda, A., Mousa, M., Erkan, I. y Rahman, M. (2021). SWOT analysis applications: An integrative literature review. Journal of Global Business Insights, 6(1), 55-73. https://doi.org/10.5038/2640-6489.6.1.1148

Bergillos, R. J. y Ortega-Sánchez, M. (2017). Assessing and mitigating the landscape effects of river damming on the Guadalfeo River delta, southern Spain. Landscape and Urban Planning, 165, 117-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.05.002

Bertolucci, L., Stolte, B., Mattos, R., Jugend, D. y Gomes, R. (2019). Organic solid waste management in a circular economy perspective. A systematic review and SWOT analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 239, 118086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118086

Biehl, J., Köppel, J., Rodorff, V., Huesca, M., Zimmermann, A., Geißler, G. y Rehhausen, A. (2019). Implementing strategic environmental assessment in countries of the global South. An analysis within the Peruvian context. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 77, 23-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2019.02.009

Bottero, M., Armando, A., Bonino, M., Frassoldati, F., Bruno, E. y Federighi, V. (2016). A hybrid evaluation approach for designing complex urban scenarios: Application for the T.I.T. Area (China). Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 223, 929-935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.321

Castriciones, E. V. y Vijayan, V. (2020). Biosecurity risk mapping and gap analysis in South East Asia. Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity, 2(1), 36-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2020.03.001

Chen, T.-L., Hsu, H.-M., Pan, S.-Y. y Chiang, P.-C. (2019). Advances and challenges of implementing carbon offset mechanism for a low carbon economy: The Taiwanese experience. Journal of Cleaner Production, 239, 117860. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117860

Coelho, M., Pavani, B., Carvalho, E., de Oliveira, A., de Oliveira, A., Basso, V., Dias, A., de Carvalho, A. y Barreto, J. (2020). Improving the management effectiveness and decision-making by stakeholders’ perspectives: A case study in a protected area from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Journal of Environmental Management, 272, 111083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111083

Cook, M. (2021). Chapter 6. Project cash flow. En Developments in Petroleum Science (vol. 71, pp. 133-205). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821190-8.00006-X

de Carvalho, M., Alves, L. y de Souza, D. (2015). Project management and its effects on project success: Cross-country and cross-industry comparisons. International Journal of Project Management, 33(7), 1509-1522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.004

Dede, G. y Akçay, M. (2016). Technology foresight in practice: A proposal for Turkish space vision. Space Policy, 35, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2014.11.004

Dhote, J. y Limbourg, S. (2020). Designing unmanned aerial vehicle networks for biological material transportation - The case of Brussels. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 148, 106652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2020.106652

Durdyev, S. y Ismail, S. (2017). The build-operate-transfer model as an infrastructure privatisation strategy for Turkmenistan. Utilities Policy, 48, 195-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jup.2016.12.002

Eckhardt, J., Nykänen, L., Aapaoja, A. y Niemi, P. (2018). MaaS in rural areas-Case Finland. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 27, 75-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2018.09.005

Elsevier, B. V. (2021). ScienceDirect. https://www.sciencedirect.com/

Görener, A., Toker, K. y Uluçay, K. (2012). Application of combined SWOT and AHP: A case study for a manufacturing Firm. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 58, 58, 1525-1534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.1139

Haque, H. M. E., Dhakal, S. y Mostafa, S. M. G. (2020). An assessment of opportunities and challenges for cross-border electricity trade for Bangladesh using SWOT-AHP approach. Energy Policy, 137, 111118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111118

Hartono, B. (2018). From project risk to complexity analysis: A systematic classification. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, 11(3), 734-760. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-09-2017-0108

Joslin, R. y Müller, R. (2015). Relationships between a project management methodology and project success in different project governance contexts. International Journal of Project Management, 33(6), 1377-1392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.03.005

Kalina, J., Świerzewski, M. y Strzałka, R. (2019). Operational experiences of municipal heating plants with biomass-fired ORC cogeneration units. Energy Conversion and Management, 181, 544-561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.12.045

Karimi, M., Niknamfar, A. H. y Niaki, S. T. A. (2019). An application of fuzzy-logic and grey-relational ANP-based SWOT in the ceramic and tile industry. Knowledge-Based Systems, 163, 581-594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2018.09.020

Lee, Y., Kim, Y. J. y Lee, M. C. (2021). Improving public acceptance of H2 stations: SWOT-AHP analysis of South Korea. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 46(34), 17597-17607. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJHYDENE.2021.02.182

Li, C., Negnevitsky, M. y Wang, X. (2020). Prospective assessment of methanol vehicles in China using FANP-SWOT analysis. Transport Policy, 96, 60-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.06.010

Li, Z., Galeano, M., Ravesteijn, W. y Qi, Z. (2017). Towards low carbon based economic development: Shanghai as a C40 city. Science of The Total Environment, 576, 538-548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.034

Mahdiyar, A., Tabatabaee, S., Sadeghifam, A. N., Mohandes, S. R., Abdullah, A. y Meynagh, M. M. (2016). Probabilistic private cost-benefit analysis for green roof installation: A Monte Carlo simulation approach. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 20, 317-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2016.10.001

Mathiyazhagan, S. (2020). Participatory youth-led community development: A child-centered visual SWOT analysis in India. Children and Youth Services Review, 113, 104963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2020.104963

McNeil, A. J., Frey, R. y Embrechts, P. (2015). Quantitative risk management: Concepts, techniques and tools. Princeton Series in Finance.

Nebot, C., Pasarin, M., Canela, J., Sala, C. y Escosa, A. (2016). La salud comunitaria en los equipos de atención primaria: Objetivo de dirección. Atención Primaria, 48(10), 642-648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aprim.2015.10.009

Nesticò, A. (2018). Risk-analysis techniques for the economic evaluation of investment projects. Integrated Evaluation for the Management of Contemporary Cities, 617-629.

Nikulin, C. y Becker, G. (2015). Una metodología sistémica y creativa para la gestión estratégica: Caso de estudio Región de Atacama-Chile. Journal of Technology Management & Innovation, 10(2), 127-144. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-27242015000200009

Nurcahyanto, Simsek, Y. y Urmee, T. (2020). Opportunities and challenges of energy service companies to promote energy efficiency programs in Indonesia. Energy, 205, 117603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117603

Project Management Institute (2017). La guía de los fundamentos para la dirección de proyectos (Guía del PMBOK) (6.ª ed.). Project Management Institute, Inc.

Psomadaki, O. I., Dimoulas, C. A., Kalliris, G. M. y Paschalidis, G. (2019). Digital storytelling and audience engagement in cultural heritage management: A collaborative model based on the Digital City of Thessaloniki. Journal of Cultural Heritage, 36, 12-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2018.07.016

Rahman, M. A. U., Hossain, M. Z. y Kabir, M. E. (2016). Operationalizing community-led housing in practice: Lessons from Bangkok, Thailand and Mumbai, India. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 5(2), 564-578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.05.002

Rathi, A. K. A. (2017). Evaluation of project-level environmental impact assessment and SWOT analysis of EIA process in India. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 67, 31-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2017.08.004

Real Options Valuation, Inc. (2021). Risk simulator (versión 2021) [software]. Real Options Valuation, Inc.

Rodrigues-da-Silva, L. H. y Crispim, J. A. (2014). The project risk management process, a preliminary study. Procedia Technology, 16, 943-949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.protcy.2014.10.047

Sharma, L. y Pandey, S. (2020). Recovery of resources from end-of-life passenger cars in the informal sector in India. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 24, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.06.005

Sobrido-Prieto, M. y Rumbo-Prieto, M. (2018). The systematic review: Plurality of approaches and methodologies. Enfermería Clínica (English Edition), 28(6), 387-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENFCLE.2018.08.004

Squires, A., Chitashvili, T., Djibuti, M., Ridge, L. y Chyun, D. (2017). Health research capacity building in Georgia: A case-based needs assessment. Public Health, 147, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2017.01.024

Stevanovic, M., Allacker, K. y Vermeulen, S. (2017). Hospital building sustainability: The experience in using qualitative tools and steps towards the life cycle approach. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 38, 445-451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2017.03.135

Toklu, M. C., Erdem, M. B. y Taşkın, H. (2016). A fuzzy sequential model for realization of strategic planning in manufacturing firms. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 102, 512-519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2016.01.002

Vacková, J. y Prokešová, R. (2017). Selected areas of immigrant integration in the Czech Republic. Kontakt, 19(4), e237-e247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kontakt.2017.09.002

van der Aa, J., Goverde, A. J., Teunissen, P. W. y Scheele, F. (2016). Paving the road for a European postgraduate training curriculum. European Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology and Reproductive Biology, 203, 229-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejogrb.2016.05.020

Zaroni, H., Maciel, L. B., Carvalho, D. B. y Pamplona, E. de O. (2019). Monte Carlo Simulation approach for economic risk analysis of an emergency energy generation system. Energy, 172, 498-508. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.145

Zharan, K. y Bongaerts, J. C. (2017). Decision-making on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry: A case studies analysis, a cost analysis and a SWOT analysis. Journal of Sustainable Mining, 16(4), 162-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsm.2017.11.004