Economic impacts of agricultural policy responses to the outbreak of COVID-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.163.4924Keywords:
Covid-19, agricultural policy, distributional effectsAbstract
The aim of this article is to evaluate the general economic impact of the policies focused on the agricultural sector decreed by the Colombian government within the State of Economic, Social, and Ecological Emergency to mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on this sector. We use a computable general equilibrium model, calibrated with a social accounting matrix that was expanded to focus on specific crops and considered different sizes of agricultural production units. We find that, in general, this set of policies does not have adverse effects but increases the agricultural production of the units receiving the incentives, especially of small and medium-sized farms. In turn, they also increase the demand for unskilled labor, rural households’ disposable income, and consumption compared with pre-covid levels. The results are conditional on the options to finance this set of policies. Also, depending on the financing option, the income gap between rural and urban areas could either narrow or widen.
Downloads
References
Aday, S. & Aday, M. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 4(4), 167-180. https://doi.org/10.1093/fqsafe/fyaa024
Adeeth Cariappa, AG, Kumar Acharya, K., Ashok Adhav, C., Sendhil, R. & Ramasundaram, P. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian agricultural system: A 10-point strategy for post-pandemic recovery. Outlook on Agriculture, 50(1), 26-33. https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727021989060
Arellana, J., Márquez, L. & Cantillo, V. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak in Colombia: An analysis of its impacts on transport systems. Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2020, 8867316. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8867316
ANIF (2020). Crecimiento del PIB en el primer trimestre de 2020: el efecto del virus se sintió con fuerza. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.anif.com.co/informe-semanal/crecimiento-del-pib-en-el-primer-trimestre-de-2020-el-efecto-del-virus-se-sintio-con-fuerza/
ANDI (2021). Colombia: balance 2020 y perspectivas 2021. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: http://www.andi.com.co/Uploads/Balance%202020%20y%20perspectivas%202021_637471684751039075.pdf
Bárcena, A. & Cimoli, M. (2020). Asimetrías estructurales y crisis sanitaria: el imperativo de una recuperación transformadora para el desarrollo sostenible en América Latina y el Caribe. Revista CEPAL, 132, 18-46.
Beckman, J. & Countryman, A.M. (2021). The importance of agriculture in the economy: Impacts from COVID-19. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(5), 1595-1611. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12212
Beckman, J., Baquedano, F. & Countryman, A. (2021). The impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, food prices, and food security. Q Open, 1(1), qoab005. https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoab005
Bochtis, D., Benos, L., Lampridi, M., Marinoudi, V., Pearson, S. & Sørensen, C.G. (2020). Agricultural workforce crisis in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustainability, 12(19), 8212. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198212
Bonet, J., Ricciulli-Marín, D., Pérez-Valbuena, J., Galvis-Aponte, L., Haddad, E., Araújo, I. & Perobelli, F. (2020). Impacto económico regional del Covid-19 en Colombia: un análisis insumo-producto. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/9843.
Botero, J. & Montañez, F. (2020). Efectos en la economía colombiana del COVID-19: Un análisis de equilibrio general computable. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.eafit.edu.co/escuelas/economiayfinanzas/cief/Documents/informe-especial-2020-abril.pdf.
CEPAL (2020). Dimensionar los efectos del COVID-19 para pensar en la reactivación. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/publication/files/45445/S2000286_es.pdf
CEPAL (2021). Financiamiento para el desarrollo en la era de la pandemia de COVID-19 y después. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/publication/files/46710/S2100064_es.pdf
CEPAL-OIT (2020). El trabajo en tiempos de pandemia: desafíos frente a la enfermedad por coronavirus (COVID-19). Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/publication/files/45557/S2000307_es.pdf
Congreso de la República de Colombia (2019). Ley 2010 de 2019.
Decoster, A., Loughrey, J., O'Donoghue, C. & Verwerft, D. (2010). How regressive are indirect taxes? A microsimulation analysis for five European countries. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 29(2), 326-350. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.20494
DANE (2014a). Cuentas Nacionales. Cuentas Económicas Integradas. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/pib/cuentas-nal-anuales/cuentas-economicas-integradas-2014-2019p.xls
DANE (2014b). Cuentas Nacionales. Cuadro de Oferta y Utilización. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/pib/cuentas-nal-anuales/oferta-utilizacion-precios-constantes-2006-2014.xlsx
DANE (2016). 3er Censo Nacional Agropecuario, la mayor operación estadística del campo colombiano en los últimos 45 años, Tomo 2 – Resultados. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/images/foros/foro-de-entrega-de-resultados-y-cierre-3-censo-nacional-agropecuario/CNATomo2-Resultados.pdf
DANE (2020). Gran encuesta integrada de hogares. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/mercado-laboral/empleo-y-desempleo/geih-historicos
DANE (2021a). Encuesta de pulso social. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/encuesta-pulso-social
DANE (2021b). Pobreza monetaria en Colombia. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/condiciones_vida/pobreza/2020/Presentacion-pobreza-monetaria_2020.pdf
Decaluwé, B., Lemelin, A., Maisonnave, H. & Robichaud, V. (2013). PEP-1-1: The PEP standard single-country, static CGE model. Retrieved on June 18, 2020, from: https://www.pep-net.org/pep-1-1-single-country-static-version
Echavarría, J.J., Villamizar-Villegas, M., Restrepo-Tamayo, S. & Hernández-Leal, J.D. (2018). Impacto del crédito sobre el agro en Colombia: Evidencia del nuevo censo nacional agropecuario. In J.J. Echavarría, M. Villamizar-Villegas & S. Restrepo-Tamayo (Eds), Superando barreras: El impacto del crédito en el sector agrario en Colombia (pp. 41-72). Bogotá: Banco de la República.
El Tiempo (2021). Las razones por las que en el campo sí bajó la pobreza en 2020. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/sectores/por-que-en-el-campo-si-bajo-la-pobreza-en-2020-584976.
Elleby, C., Pérez Domínguez, I., Adenauer, M. & Genovese, G. (2020). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global agricultural markets. Environmental and Resource Economics, 76, 1067-1079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00473-6
Escobar, G., Penagos, Á., Albacete, M. & García, D. (2020). Los efectos del Covid-19 en el abastecimiento de alimentos: un primer análisis. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://webnueva.rimisp.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/02-Covid-19-Abastecimiento.pdf
Fenalce (2021). Estadísticas Fenalce. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.fenalce.org/alfa/pg.php?pa=60
Fedearroz (2021). Estadísticas arroceras. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: http://www.fedearroz.com.co/new/apr_public.php.
Fedepapa (2021). Histórico de precios de la papa. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://fedepapa.com/historico-precios-de-la-papa/
Giordano, P. & Ortiz de Mendívil, C. (2020). Cómo la política comercial puede ayudar a evitar una crisis alimentaria ante la pandemia de COVID-19. BID Resumen de Políticas, DB -PB- 337. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002420
Gómez, J. (2020). La inmoral utilidad de los bancos en plena pandemia. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.semana.com/la-inmoral-utilidad-de-los-bancos-en-plena-pandemia-columna-de-jairo-gomez/671157/
Gruère, G. & Brooks, J. (2021). Viewpoint: Characterising early agricultural and food policy responses to the outbreak of COVID-19. Food Policy, 100, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.102017
IGAC – Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi (2012). Atlas de la distribución de la propiedad rural en Colombia. Bogotá: Imprenta Nacional de Colombia.
IDN (2020). Agriculture sector ‘most promising’ post-COVID-19 pandemic, says Padjadjaran University economist. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.idnfinancials.com/news/34108/agriculture-sector-most-promising-post-covid-pandemic-padjadjaran-university-economist
INCORA – Instituto Colombiano de la Reforma Agraria (1996). Resolución No. 041: Determinación de las extensiones para las UAFs.
Jiménez, D., Saldarriaga-Isaza, A. & Cicowiez, M. (2021). Distributional and economy-wide effects of post-conflict agricultural policy in Colombia. European Review of Agricultural Economics, advanced article. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbab020
Laborde, D., Martin, W. & Vos, R. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 on global poverty, food security and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis. Agricultural Economics 52, 375-390. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12624
Larue, B. (2020). Labour issues & COVID-19. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68, 231-237. https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12233
Londoño-Vélez, J. & Querubín, P. (2021). The Impact of emergency cash assistance in a pandemic: Experimental evidence from Colombia. The Review of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01043
LOOP (2020). Government looks to agriculture as part of post-COVID-19 plan. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.looptt.com/content/gopee-scoon-looksagriculture-part-post-covid-19-plan.
Marriner, K. & Becerra, L. S. (2020). Acciones de respuesta ante el Covid-19 en Brasil y Colombia: ¿Ayuda para quién? Análisis Jurídico – Político, 2(4), 49 - 73. https://doi.org/10.22490/26655489.4240
Mejía, L.F. (2021). ¿Qué tanto cayó la pobreza rural en Colombia? Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/sectores/opinion-que-tanto-cayo-la-pobreza-rural-en-colombia-589337
Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural (2021). Subsector productivo de la yuca. Dirección de Cadenas Agrícolas y Forestales. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://sioc.minagricultura.gov.co/Yuca/Documentos/2019-06-30%20Cifras%20Sectoriales.pdf
Okonji, A. (2020). Opportunities for agriculture amidst COVID-19. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.asareca.org/news/opportunities-agriculture-amidst-covid-19.
Pan, D., Yang, J., Zhou, G. & Kong, F. (2020). The influence of COVID-19 on agricultural economy and emergency mitigation measures in China: A text mining analysis. PLOS ONE, 15(10), e0241167. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241167
Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (2020). Actualidad del sistema financiero colombiano. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://img.lalr.co/cms/2021/02/26171631/Informe-de-Actualidad-del-Sistema-Financiera-de-diciembre-de-2020.pdf.
Swinnen, J. & Vos, R., (2021). COVID-19 and impacts on global food systems and household welfare: Introduction to a special issue. Agricultural Economics, 52(3), 365-374. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12623
The Economist (2020). The great reversal. Retrieved on May 18, 2021, from: https://www.economist.com/international/2020/05/23/covid-19-is-undoing-years-of-progress-incurbing-global-poverty
Trinh, B. & Viet, D. (2013). A Short note on RAS method. Advances in Management and Applied Economics, 3(4), 133-137.
Varshney, D., Kumar, A., Mishra, A., Rashid, S. & Joshie, P. (2021). India's COVID-19 social assistance package and its impact on the agriculture sector. Agricultural Systems, 1859, 103049. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103049
Zidouemba, P.R., Kinda, S.R. & Ouedraogo, I.M. (2020). Could Covid-19 worsen food insecurity in Burkina Faso? The European Journal of Development Research, 32, 1379-1401. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00324-6
Published
Issue
Section
License
Articles are the sole responsibility of their authors, and will not compromise Icesi’s University principles or policies nor those of the Editorial Board of the journal Estudios Gerenciales. Authors authorize and accept the transfer of all rights to the journal, both for its print and electronic publication. After an article is published, it may be reproduced without previous permission of the author or the journal but the author(s), year, title, volume, number and range of pages of the publication must be mentioned. In addition, Estudios Gerenciales must be mentioned as the source (please, refrain from using Revista Estudios Gerenciales).
How to Cite
