Criminal behavior in Medellin in times of the pandemic crisis, a spatio-temporal model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2021.159.4186Keywords:
crime, security, COVID-19, preventive mandatory isolation, bayesian analysisAbstract
This paper aimed to identify the effect that the implementation of preventive mandatory social isolation had on the dynamics of security and coexistence in Medellín, Colombia. Using a Bayesian structural time-series model, the weight of this preventive measure in the variation of the indicators was calculated: homicides, forced intra-urban displacement, robbery, motorcycles theft, car theft, sexual crimes, family violence, fights, and personal injuries. The results showed this measure had a direct and significant impact on the behavior of the indicators considered; there were increases between 9.8% and 173%, and decreases between 22.9% and 85%, compared to the projections without this measure.
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